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 Forum index » Taking the Puppy out for a walk » Misc
Advanced simulation
Moderators: Flash, JohnMurga
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dogle

Joined: 11 Oct 2007
Posts: 411

PostPosted: Wed 13 May 2020, 13:49    Post subject:  Advanced simulation
Subject description: (it's virus-related)
 

I shall be very grateful to any fellow Puppy enthusiasts, who happen to be into the tricky area of modelling and simulation (I'm not), and who are able to offer me an informed opinion on the quality of modelling used in this recently-released research study.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553

(2.1 MB pdf, to me fascinating, and very well worth downloading).

To those of us reading this who are not, the science IMVHO looks to be very good - and the quality of simulation vastly better than the allegedly very defective modelling used by a prominent UK team, the leader of which was recently disgraced and unfrocked, which may have been terribly misleading to my (UK) government, and others. Should such be so, the butcher's bill is likely to run to countless thousands of avoidable deaths, hence my enquiry here.

To those of us who are not deeply into the science or the modelling, skip the heavy science and just go to the stark conclusions starting on p. 15, which are quite sombre and emphasise the extreme urgency for governments to get their acts together swiftly before they lose control altogether. Afterwards, take a look at the charts on pp 5, 8, 9 to get a quick handle on the grim picture which might unfold lest national bureaucrats wise-up immediately.

Finally, forum members might be interested to follow the link posted halfway down p 11 - the authors have taken the most unusual step of making (some of) their modelling software active online, presumably primarily to help govt. policymakers reach their own conclusions if only they could have the wits, but it's there ready for you to have a go with your own scenario should you so wish.
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some1

Joined: 17 Jan 2013
Posts: 123

PostPosted: Wed 13 May 2020, 17:57    Post subject:  

@dogle: Nice find
The link below refers to a newspaper-article in english.The article contains some names for further searching. Research-result may be publisheded soon.
https://www.yourdanishlife.dk/unique-danish-research-to-examine-and-certify-the-utility-of-masks/
-----------
Background:Like in UK and elsewhere
the policy-position in Denmark was that,
because it was not documented,that face-masks would have an important effect on stopping infection-spreading,
face-mask for general use in Denmark was NOT recommended.
That may change -though.
-------------
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musher0

Joined: 04 Jan 2009
Posts: 15041
Location: Gatineau (Qc), Canada

PostPosted: Wed 13 May 2020, 18:07    Post subject:  

Thanks for sharing, dogle.

I think this study makes it clear why cultures who include mask-wearing suffered less from
COVID-19. I don't know why the West didn't pick up on this feature earlier.

It's common sense, no need for a Ph.D. : wearing a mask, you're keeping your infection to
yourself (if you're infected) and not spreading the virus in your environment.

I think washing one's hand frequently is also key to staying safe -- just to make double sure.
We still know so little about this COVID-19 bugger...

Best regards.

_________________
musher0
~~~~~~~~~~
"You want it darker? We kill the flame." (L. Cohen)
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