Required ICU Capacity for COVID-19
Posted: Sat 28 Mar 2020, 07:26
I was looking up some numbers related to COVID-19 and the ability of the medical system to cope:
What I'm unsure of is how long is typically needed in the ICU for the 5% of people that will get COVID-19 and need ICU care. From the above numbers 3 weeks in the ICU would be too long for Alberta if the number of new cases per day grew too much more. I'm not sure who well prepared other regions are but I can see why such extensive measures are being taken. Perhaps it will be more like 1 week in the ICU and if that is all that is required than maybe the numbers won't be so bad.I would like to address the "treating aspect" because I'm not show how effect the world will be at "preventing" COVID-19. Alberta has 7.9 ICU beds per 100 000 people.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... -outbreak/
There are more than 4.371 million people in Alberta so there are about (4300000/100000*7.9~340 ICU beds).
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... -outbreak/
...
although this source says that there is 207 ICU beds in Alberta:
https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/how-many-ve ... -1.4859181
so my population numbers must be wrong.
Currently in Alberta there are 10 patients in ICU beds.
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local- ... 19-update/
5% of patients will need an ICU bed.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2763188
I'm not sure how many ICU beds are needed in the absence of COVID-19 but I don't think it would take too many cases to reach ICU capacity.
However, with linear growth rates new beds should open up as patients recover. If we knew the spare ICU bed capacity then we would know the maximum linear growth rate. Near the peak of the virus the growth rate will change from a positive exponential to linear and on the decline it switches to a negative exponential.
Anyway, the number of ICU beds required would be equal to the number of new cases per day multiplied by the time needed in the ICU. I can't find any numbers about the time needed in the ICU but we could probably estimate it by the number of people in the ICU for places that are not near ICU capacity. My guess is it isn't that much greater than the 5% of people that will need ICU treatment. For instance in Alberta with 542 cases 10 are in intensive care (about 5.42% of patents).
Currently in Alberta there are about 56 new cases per day. In severe cases the median recovery time is 3-6 weeks:
https://www.therolladailynews.com/news/ ... -epicenter
Let's say 3weeks of that is in the ICU.
(56 new cases per day)*(0.05 of peple requiring ICU cases)*(21 days)=58.8
From those numbers 3 weeks would likely be too long in the ICU given current capacity. I'm not sure how long of the above median recovery time is actually in the ICU.
Anyway, from the above numbers I see why the current measures are quite extensive. I do need to research this more though.